Can the Jr. Flyers U15 Team be the Dark Horse that Makes it to Nationals?

On the surface the U15 Jr. Flyers look like a long-shot to advance to the USAH National Tournament. The team currently sits in 36th place in the MyHockeyRankings, and 3rd place in the AYHL district standings with a 2-4 record. They have dropped 3 games in a row to the league-leading WB/Scranton Knights, losing by a combined score of 13-2, and they lost their only contest against the 2nd place NJ Avalanche. Making things harder is that likely awaiting the Flyers should they make it out of the AYHL is a strong NJ Rockets team who represented the Atlantic District at Nationals last season. 

While the year is still young it’s a great time to look at some of the arguments about why the Jr. Flyers will or will not make this year’s National Tournament. 

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Why the Flyers WILL get to Nationals:

Coaching 

It’s unlikely that Jr. Flyers Head Coach Jon Rogger is happy with his team’s slow start, but anyone who knows him knows that Rogger’s speciality is coaching up his teams. With an impressive resume that includes stops in the USHL, NAHL and EHL, Rogger knows what it takes for a team to succeed at the end of the season. He has the experience to highlight his teams’ strengths while mitigating their weaknesses, and he’s a tactician whose teams have a habit of surprising people in the playoffs. Make no mistake, if the Jr. Flyers get into the postseason, Rogger will have them ready to play.  

Grit

Jr. Flyers teams are notoriously hard to play against, and this group is no exception. They love to play that heavy, in-your-face style that has characterized Philadelphia hockey for decades. The team is going to finish hits, slow teams down, and make players fight and claw for every inch of open ice. While they might not be the tallest lineup in the district, they are physically strong and play with a relentless intensity which is exhausting to face shift-in and shift-out. Factor in that the team’s above them like to play a wide-open style, and it’s easy to see how the Flyer’s grit could be a difference-maker in the postseason. 

Team Defense 

This is partly the culmination of the above two points, but the Jr. Flyers pride 

themselves on playing hard at both ends of the ice. Their defenders are smart and mobile, staying in strong defensive position while working hard to limit time and space. Their forwards support the play in the d-zone, hunt pucks hard on the backcheck, and win 50/50 battles in their own end. This group will block shots, tie up sticks in front and put their bodies on the line to win loose pucks along the walls. Couple these habits with strong defensive systems and coaching, and the Jr. Flyers just might be able to keep opponents off the scoreboard in the playoffs.  

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Why the Flyers WILL NOT get to Nationals

Lack of offensive fire-power

There aren’t a lot of holes in the Jr. Flyers’ lineup. Their roster is deep with AAA talent and they historically are a club that gets balanced support from up and down their lineup. The thing that’s likely to haunt the Flyers if they make it to the postseason however is a lack of high-end depth on offense. While they certainly have a few players who can find the back of the net, they are averaging 2 fewer goals per district game compared to the teams ahead of them in the standings, and a lot of their offense is driven by a few key players.  Without that depth up-front  teams in the playoffs will be able to lock in on those scorers, which is going to make it very difficult for the Flyers to consistently find offense. 

Strength of Playoff Competition

In order for the Jr. Flyers to make it to Nationals, they are likely going to have to beat out the NJ Avalanche, WB/Scranton Knights and NJ Rockets. All 3 of those teams are strong and should pose significant problems for the Flyers in the postseason. 

The Avalanche are probably the Flyers’ closest competition and the teams have already played a competitive game this season. The Avs look to have a slight advantage in skill and speed but this matchup could be a toss-up for either team. 

WB/Scranton has already been a thorn in the Flyer’s side this season and that’s unlikely to change come the playoffs. The Knights play a fast, wide-open style and have a lot of skill up front. The Flyers would need to keep this to a low-scoring game, but given the talent of the WBS forwards, it’s unlikely that they are going to be kept off the scoreboard for long. 

The NJ Rockets are the strongest team on paper but it will be interesting to see how they match up if they face the Flyers. The two teams play a similar style in that they have balanced lineups that are hard to play against, but the Rockets would come into this matchup with a significant advantage in both size and top-end skill. 

Weakness of Regular Season Schedule

While this may ruffle some feathers, the reality is that the AYHL U15 division is extremely watered down this season and that lack of consistent competition could hurt the Flyers come the postseason. Thanks to their independent schedule and participation in the NE Pack League, the Rockets presently have the 12th most competitive schedule in the country, while the Flyers are sitting all the way back at 47th. Playing high-paced games against national level competition is going to give the Rockets an advantage if they find themselves having to square-up against the Flyers in the postseason. 

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